Risk Awareness · Geopolitical

Geopolitical risk

Routes, borders and airspace can change faster than a contract can.

Routes, borders and airspace can change faster than a contract can.

Diplomatic disputes, conflicts and the measures that follow them can close air, land and sea routes and change what can be bought or shipped. The examples below state what the public sources state and take no side on causes or parties.

Plans that are tested against a closed route, a changed supplier or an energy shortfall are easier to carry out when it happens.

All themes are on the Risk Awareness overview. New to the subject? Read What is Business Continuity?

Examples from the region.

June 2017 to January 2021Qatar and neighbouring statesGeopolitical, transport and trade routes

Diplomatic crisis and closed air, land and sea links

On 5 June 2017 Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt announced they were cutting ties with Qatar. Four states closed their airspace to Qatari aircraft, so Qatar Airways rerouted its flights over Iran, Turkey and Oman, and more than 70 flights were grounded across the region on Tuesday 6 June, according to Al Jazeera citing OAG data. Saudi Arabia reopened its airspace and its land and sea borders with Qatar from 4 January 2021, and the Al-Ula Declaration was signed on 5 January 2021.

What it means for continuityRoutes, borders and airspace that a business relies on every day can close at short notice, for reasons it does not control. Travel, freight, staff movement and customer access all benefit from alternatives that have been worked out before they are needed.

Sources: Al Jazeera, 7 June 2017 · Baker McKenzie, January 2021 · Government Communications Office of Qatar, timeline

Late 2023 to 2024Red Sea and Suez CanalShipping and supply routes

Red Sea attacks on vessels reroute global shipping

From late 2023, attacks on vessels in the Red Sea area reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, through which about 15 per cent of global maritime trade volume normally passes. IMF PortWatch estimates showed Suez Canal trade down 50 per cent year on year in the first two months of 2024. Several shipping companies diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, which added 10 days or more to delivery times on average.

What it means for continuityA single sea route can carry a large share of an organisation’s imports. When it is disrupted, lead times lengthen, stock runs down faster and companies with small inventories feel it first. Knowing which goods depend on which route, and holding a sensible buffer, shortens the response.

Source: IMF Blog, 7 March 2024

June 2025 and February 2026Qatar and wider Gulf airspaceAirspace closure and air travel

Airspace closures halt flights at Gulf hubs

On 23 June 2025 Qatar closed its airspace for around six hours after missiles were launched at bases in Qatar and Iraq, and Rotate data cited by Air Cargo News showed about 200 flights at Doha affected. On 28 February 2026, as a regional conflict escalated, at least eight states in the region declared their airspace closed, including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE, and Cirium data cited by Al Jazeera showed about 24 per cent of flights to the Middle East cancelled that day. The sources describe the position on those dates only.

What it means for continuityGulf hubs carry passengers, staff and air freight for many organisations. A sudden closure strands travellers, delays shipments and forces diversions. Continuity plans can cover staff who are away from base, time-critical deliveries, alternative routings and the ability to work remotely while travel is not possible.

Sources: Air Cargo News, 24 June 2025 · Al Jazeera, 28 February 2026

Examples from elsewhere.

February 2022 onwardEurope and global energy marketsGeopolitical, energy supply

War in Ukraine and the energy supply shock

The International Energy Agency reports that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sparked what it calls the first truly global energy crisis. It states that Russia cut 80 billion cubic metres of pipeline gas supplies to Europe, that the EU had to account for 160 billion cubic metres of “missing gas” in 2022, and that IEA member countries released oil from emergency reserves on two occasions that year.

What it means for continuityHeavy reliance on one supplier or one fuel leaves little room to manoeuvre when supply changes quickly. Organisations can ask which energy and fuel inputs their services depend on, how much could be replaced at short notice and what could be reduced if it could not.

Source: International Energy Agency, Russia’s War on Ukraine

July 2022 to July 2023Black Sea and Ukrainian portsGeopolitical, food and fertiliser supply

Grain and fertiliser exports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative

The Initiative was launched in Istanbul on 22 July 2022 by the Russian Federation, Türkiye, Ukraine and the United Nations. It set up a mechanism for the safe export of grain, related foodstuffs and fertiliser from three designated Ukrainian ports. The UN states that over 32 million metric tons of grain and food products were exported before the agreement expired on 17 July 2023.

What it means for continuityWhere a trade route depends on an agreement between parties, supply can change when the agreement does. Businesses that buy food, agricultural inputs or other bulk goods can note which routes they rely on and what alternatives exist.

Source: United Nations, Black Sea Grain Initiative FAQ

Read on.

Supply Chain Risk

Know where a route or a supplier could fail.

Operational Resilience

Dependencies behind important services.

Business Continuity Exercises

Try a closed route as a scenario.

Where this page comes from.

This page is ADVOX’s own summary, written in its own words. The sources remain the reference. The examples are public events, included for awareness. ADVOX was not involved in any of them. ADVOX is not affiliated with or endorsed by the organisations named as sources. It is general information, not legal, regulatory or professional advice. Copyright in the sources named above belongs to their owners.

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