BCMS Consulting

Supply Chain Risk

Know what your organisation depends on, where a supplier or a link in the chain could fail, and how to keep important services running when it does.

When one link in the chain fails, the service can stop.

Supply chain risk is any threat that could disrupt the flow of goods and services through the network of suppliers, partners and routes an organisation relies on. It can touch sourcing, production, logistics and delivery, and it can start inside the organisation or well outside it.

That makes it a business continuity and operational resilience matter. An organisation can have sound plans of its own and still be stopped by a supplier that cannot deliver, a route that closes or a connected system that is attacked. ADVOX helps organisations see those dependencies early and prepare for them, as part of its wider focus on business continuity and operational resilience. The support is advisory: we review, advise and exercise, and your own teams keep ownership of supplier relationships and decisions.

New to the subject? Read What is Business Continuity? and What is Operational Risk?

Six places to look.

Risks to a supply chain come from the economy, the environment, politics, ethics, technology and the organisation itself. Seeing all six side by side is the first step to knowing which ones matter most to you.

1

Economic

A key supplier fails financially, inflation pushes costs up, or a downturn squeezes a partner you depend on.

2

Environmental

Floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters stop production, damage infrastructure or block transport routes.

3

Geopolitical

War, trade disputes, tariffs, sanctions and strikes close routes, delay goods or limit what can be bought.

4

Ethical and compliance

Labour violations or poor practice further along the chain can bring legal penalties and damage to reputation.

5

Cyber and digital

Orders, stock and deliveries are managed on digital systems. An attack on one connected party can spread to others.

6

Inside the organisation

Not every source is external. Equipment breakdowns, process weaknesses and human error can interrupt supply from within.

A simple way to sort the picture.

ADVOX groups supply chain risk into four types. The grouping is a convenient way to organise the conversation. Most real disruptions touch more than one type at once.

Supply risk

Disruption to sourcing, manufacturing, transport or the availability of the stock and inputs you need.

Demand risk

Unpredictable customer behaviour that leaves you with too little stock, too much, or pricing under pressure.

Process risk

Failures or inefficiencies in the organisation’s own operations and internal processes.

External risk

Events outside your control, such as natural disasters, geopolitical events and changes in regulation.

Five that deserve early attention.

These come up again and again in published views on supply chain risk. Whether each one is high impact for you depends on what your services rely on.

Risks to look at first

  • Natural disasters that disrupt logistics and production.
  • Rising inflation, which lifts the cost of materials, labour and transport.
  • Demand complexity, as customer preferences change quickly and customised products make stock and production harder to plan.
  • Regulatory challenges, as laws on trade, environmental standards and labour keep evolving.
  • Cyberattacks on the systems that run the supply chain.

Each one is also a continuity question: what would we do on the day, and for how long could we cope? See Cyber Threats & IT Service Continuity for the digital side.

Preparation costs less than a surprise.

Managing supply chain risk is not only a procurement task. Done well, it supports four things an organisation cares about.

Keep services running

Know what your important services depend on, so a supplier problem does not become a service outage.

Reduce losses

Limit the operational and financial cost of disruption by preparing before it happens.

Build resilience and confidence

Meet customer commitments through a disruption, and show customers you were ready.

Protect reputation and meet duties

Reduce the chance of reputational harm and support compliance with the rules that apply to you.

Identify, mitigate, monitor.

A supply chain risk review with ADVOX follows three steps. The scope is agreed with you, and it can be as focused as one critical service or as wide as the whole organisation.

1

Identify

Map the suppliers, partners, routes, systems and sites behind your important services. Find the critical suppliers and the single points of failure, and judge how likely each failure is and how serious it would be.

2

Mitigate

Look at the options for each significant exposure. These can include a wider supplier base, scenario planning, grouping suppliers by importance, and continuity arrangements that cover a supplier outage.

3

Monitor

Agree how risks are tracked and reviewed, and how exercises will test the arrangements. The aim is to catch a risk before it escalates or comes back.

What we review with you: dependencies, critical suppliers, single points of failure, continuity arrangements and the exercises that test them. Your teams keep ownership of supplier contracts and decisions.

Practical ways to lower the exposure.

No plan removes supply chain risk completely. These are common ways to reduce it, and to be ready for what remains.

Map the chain

Build a picture of who supplies what, from where, and which services rely on it. Keep it up to date as partners change.

Quantify the impact

Estimate what a disruption could cost and how likely it is, so effort goes where the exposure is greatest.

Diversify and rehearse

Reduce reliance on a single source where that makes sense, and walk through disruption scenarios before they happen.

Adjust stock levels

Hold enough buffer to bridge a gap in supply, while weighing the cost of holding too much.

Strengthen supplier relationships

Open communication with key suppliers helps problems surface early and be solved together.

Use digital tools with care

Forecasting and automation tools can help with visibility and planning. They support judgement and do not replace it. See BCMS Software and Automation.

Connected to the rest of ADVOX’s work.

Supply chain risk sits alongside the other topics ADVOX supports. A supplier outage is tested in the same way as any other disruption, and it is planned for within the same framework.

Business Continuity Exercises

Try a supplier failure as a scenario, so roles and decisions are tested before they are needed.

Operational Resilience

Trace the people, processes, technology and suppliers behind each important service.

Supply Chain Resilience Training

ADVOX lists this specialism course on its BCI Specialism Courses page, for teams who want to build the skills.

Also see BCMS Consultancy, What is Operational Resilience? and What is Cyber Security?

Where this page comes from.

This guide is ADVOX’s own summary, written in its own words. The sources remain the reference. It is general information, not legal, regulatory or procurement advice. ADVOX is not affiliated with or endorsed by IBM, NetSuite or Supply Chain Digital. Copyright in the sources named above belongs to their owners.

Talk to ADVOX about supply chain risk.

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